熊出没之夺宝熊兵
Does China’s weak domestic demand really lead to excess capacity?: People's Daily_我的网站
A | 天津8月22日电 (孙翼飞)21日，天津市政府新闻办举行“开局起步‘十五五’”系列主题新闻发布会津南专场。
But what are the facts on the ground?
China's Ministry of Commerce recently released a document titled China's Position on the So-Called Excess Capacity Issue. Reviewing the evolution of the global capacity landscape from a historical perspective, it offers an objective analysis of how industrial subsidies, trade surpluses, economic imbalances and market competition relate to "overcapacity," sets out China's policy practices and the direction of its efforts, and puts forward China's ideas and proposals - a forceful response to the "China overcapacity" narrative.
Plainly, the argument that "China's inadequate domestic demand gives rise to excess capacity" rests on a logical sleight of hand - it takes a localized phenomenon at the micro level of the market and applies it wholesale to the structure of the macroeconomy, a picture far removed from reality.
China is not only a major manufacturing power but also a major consuming power. Domestic demand has long been the main engine of the Chinese economy.
To see through the logical fallacy of the "overcapacity" narrative, one must first be clear about where the Chinese economy actually sits in the global landscape.
In the course of economic globalization, China has actively integrated itself into the international division of industrial labor and become the "world's factory" in the truest sense. Chinese manufacturing has enriched the global supply of goods, lowered living costs for consumers in countries around the world, and played an important part in easing global inflationary pressure. But to define China simply as a "producer" on that basis, and from there to conclude that it suffers from "inadequate domestic demand and overcapacity," is a proposition that does not hold water.
From 2013 to 2024, domestic demand contributed an average of 93 percent to China's economic growth, with consumption and investment accounting for an average of 55 percent and 38 percent respectively. China's total retail sales of consumer goods rose from 23.8 trillion yuan ($3.53 trillion) in 2013 to 50.1 trillion yuan in 2025, doubling in size.
Measured at the World Bank's purchasing power parity rates, China's total retail sales of consumer goods in 2025 were 1.7 times those of the US, making the country the world's largest market for consumer goods in all but name. China today ranks first globally in the physical volume of goods consumed, and its per capita annual consumption of some industrial products already approaches the levels seen in developed economies.
China keeps expanding its domestic demand and is working toward a higher-level balance between supply and demand.
Growth in China's total retail sales of consumer goods has slowed somewhat in recent years, and some have taken this as proof of weak domestic demand. That reading is neither objective nor complete.
A strong domestic market provides strategic support for Chinese modernization. The outline of China's 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-30) period devotes a dedicated part to building such a market, stressing the need to adhere to the strategic focus of expanding domestic demand, to expand effective investment, to further implement special actions to boost consumption, to promote the expansion and upgrading of commodity consumption, to unleashing the potential of service consumption, to strengthening the foundation of residents' consumption and to continuously improve the consumption environment - using new demand to guide new supply, and using new supply to create new demand, so as to promote a virtuous cycle between consumption and investment, and between supply and demand, achieve a higher level of dynamic balance between supply and demand.
The slowdown in retail sales growth is consistent with China's shift from high-speed growth to high-quality development, and it also reflects the upgrading of the country's consumption structure. China's consumer market is moving faster from one dominated by goods toward one in which goods and services carry equal weight. Spending on services is growing rapidly and is expected to account for more than half of the total by 2030.
China's super-sized market is not only the bedrock of its own development but also a broad platform on which countries around the world can share in the dividends of that growth.
China has ranked as the world's second-largest importer for 17 consecutive years and is a major export destination for nearly 80 countries and regions. It has granted zero-tariff treatment to 63 countries and regions, becoming the first major economy in the world to extend full zero-tariff coverage to every African country and every least developed country that has diplomatic relations with it. It is also the only country to host an international import expo, having staged eight editions of the China International Import Expo with cumulative intended deals worth more than $580 billion. Over the 14th Five-Year Plan period (2021-25) period, China's cumulative imports topped 90 trillion yuan. These facts and figures show clearly that China is not just the "world's factory" but, still more, the "world's market."
Looking ahead, China's middle-income group is set to exceed 800 million people within little more than a decade, and per capita GDP is expected to reach the level of a moderately developed country. With vast room for consumption and ample potential and vitality, domestic demand will remain the main engine of China's economic development and will keep injecting strong momentum into world economic growth.
This was compiled and translated by the Global Times English edition based on an article published in the "Chisu Jinsheng" economic commentary column of the People's Daily on August 6, 2026.
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B | 记者在发布会上获悉，“十五五”时期，天津市津南区将充分发挥京津“大双城记”和津城滨城“小双城记”重要节点战略优势，积极抢抓“建圈”“扩围”重大机遇，全力做好“融入”“引入”两篇文章，深入推进区域一体化、京津同城化。
C | 津南区委书记、区长杨灏介绍，“十四五”时期，津南区高站位融入京津冀协同发展，市场化引进百度智能云等北京方向优质项目101个，落地机构220家，实现计划投资超400亿元。面向“十五五”，津南区将从三方面持续发力： 一是在创新研发和成果转化上下功夫。纵深推进海河教育园、天开津南园、津南经开区“三位一体”管理体制改革，常态对接清华大学等高校院所和科技研发机构，精准承接首都原始创新成果与前沿技术外溢落地。系统布局全链条概念验证、小试中试、技术熟化公共平台，切实打通实验室到生产线的“最后一公里”。 二是在资源承接和产业协同上下功夫。主动融入京津冀“六链五群”产业布局，在集成电路、工业母机、智能网联汽车等领域优化产业衔接。
D | 做大做强京津冀安全应急装备产业集群，深度参与天津市机器人产业集群申报国家级先进制造业集群。 三是在场景开放和要素服务上下功夫。以全域实景场景开放为核心牵引，联动伽利略、肯拓、博诺智能等企业规模化落地具身智能机器人多场景应用。高水平建成天工碳湾科创园、机器人产业园等创新载体，全力争创国家级高新技术开发区。 杨灏表示，下一步，津南区将坚决落实京津冀协同发展重大国家战略，为京津冀携手打造中国式现代化建设的先行区、示范区贡献津南力量。
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